An interesting poll has been created. I was just
curious, why strong teams like Italy, Holland, and
Spain were not given as the exclusive choices. They
were included as the "Other team" only.
I don't bet, but sometimes I look at the betting house
websites to see the odds. They must calculate the odds
carefully if they don't want to lose their money. If I
translate the odds they made into the probability of
some events, I got the following two tables.
(Based on table 2, I put blue jerseys [Italy] and
yellow jerseys [Brazil] in my level Challenge-IV
#0057 "2006 World Cup Final".)
(The tables may change any time depending on the
team's conditions and the bettors' response.)
(Anyway, ANYTHING can happen in sport.)
(If you want to know my vote, visit and vote Mark's
poll.)
Table 1.
The probability of winning the World Cup:
Brazil 24.71%
England 11.47%
Italy 8.92%
Germany 8.92%
Argentina 8.92%
Holland 6.18%
Spain 5.35%
France 5.35%
Portugal 3.49%
Czech Republic 2.36%
Sweden 1.96%
Mexico 1.57%
Ivory Coast 1.57%
Ukraine 1.20%
Croatia 1.20%
USA 0.99%
Australia 0.99%
Serbia & Montenegro 0.80%
Poland 0.80%
Switzerland 0.53%
Korea Rep. 0.40%
Paraguay 0.40%
Japan 0.40%
Ghana 0.32%
Tunisia 0.20%
Ecuador 0.20%
Togo 0.16%
Iran 0.16%
Costa Rica 0.16%
Saudi Arabia 0.11%
Angola 0.11%
Trinidad And Tobago 0.08%
Table 2.
The probability of having certain Word Cup Finalists:
Brazil V England 4.70%
Brazil V Italy 3.97%
Brazil V Germany 3.97%
Brazil V Argentina 3.97%
England V Germany 3.44%
Brazil V France 3.44%
England V Italy 3.04%
England V Argentina 2.72%
England V France 1.99%
Brazil V Spain 1.99%
Brazil V Holland 1.78%
Italy V Germany 1.52%
Italy V Argentina 1.52%
Brazil V Portugal 1.52%
Argentina V Holland 1.52%
Italy V Spain 1.26%
Italy V Holland 1.26%
Italy V France 1.26%
Germany V Spain 1.26%
Germany V Argentina 1.26%
England V Spain 1.26%
England V Holland 1.26%
Brazil V Sweden 1.26%
(There are Sum(1:31) = 31x32/2 = 496 possibilities.
I cut the table to show just the top 23.)
Bye,
Suyono
[email protected] wrote:
curious, why strong teams like Italy, Holland, and
Spain were not given as the exclusive choices. They
were included as the "Other team" only.
I don't bet, but sometimes I look at the betting house
websites to see the odds. They must calculate the odds
carefully if they don't want to lose their money. If I
translate the odds they made into the probability of
some events, I got the following two tables.
(Based on table 2, I put blue jerseys [Italy] and
yellow jerseys [Brazil] in my level Challenge-IV
#0057 "2006 World Cup Final".)
(The tables may change any time depending on the
team's conditions and the bettors' response.)
(Anyway, ANYTHING can happen in sport.)
(If you want to know my vote, visit and vote Mark's
poll.)
Table 1.
The probability of winning the World Cup:
Brazil 24.71%
England 11.47%
Italy 8.92%
Germany 8.92%
Argentina 8.92%
Holland 6.18%
Spain 5.35%
France 5.35%
Portugal 3.49%
Czech Republic 2.36%
Sweden 1.96%
Mexico 1.57%
Ivory Coast 1.57%
Ukraine 1.20%
Croatia 1.20%
USA 0.99%
Australia 0.99%
Serbia & Montenegro 0.80%
Poland 0.80%
Switzerland 0.53%
Korea Rep. 0.40%
Paraguay 0.40%
Japan 0.40%
Ghana 0.32%
Tunisia 0.20%
Ecuador 0.20%
Togo 0.16%
Iran 0.16%
Costa Rica 0.16%
Saudi Arabia 0.11%
Angola 0.11%
Trinidad And Tobago 0.08%
Table 2.
The probability of having certain Word Cup Finalists:
Brazil V England 4.70%
Brazil V Italy 3.97%
Brazil V Germany 3.97%
Brazil V Argentina 3.97%
England V Germany 3.44%
Brazil V France 3.44%
England V Italy 3.04%
England V Argentina 2.72%
England V France 1.99%
Brazil V Spain 1.99%
Brazil V Holland 1.78%
Italy V Germany 1.52%
Italy V Argentina 1.52%
Brazil V Portugal 1.52%
Argentina V Holland 1.52%
Italy V Spain 1.26%
Italy V Holland 1.26%
Italy V France 1.26%
Germany V Spain 1.26%
Germany V Argentina 1.26%
England V Spain 1.26%
England V Holland 1.26%
Brazil V Sweden 1.26%
(There are Sum(1:31) = 31x32/2 = 496 possibilities.
I cut the table to show just the top 23.)
Bye,
Suyono
[email protected] wrote:
>
> Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the
> Lasertank group:
>
> Who will win the FIFA World Cup?
>
> o Argentina
> o Brazil
> o England
> o France
> o Germany
> o USA
> o Other team
> o Don't know
> o Don't care
> o What's the FIFA World Cup?
>
> To vote, please visit the following web page:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Lasertank/surveys?id=2247431
>
> Note: Please do not reply to this message. Poll votes are
> not collected via email. To vote, you must go to the Yahoo! Groups
> web site listed above.
>
> Thanks!
>